The Cell Phone Effect

Nate Silver has a post up about the effect of cell phones on polling. According to his analysis polls that do not call cell phones underestimate Obama's support by an average of 2.8%. Increasingly people are opting to use cell phones as their primary -- or only -- phone line. The majority of these people are young and the majority of the young lean Democratic. So it makes intuitive sense that Obama would be expected to see a small gain when cell phone users are included in the polling sample.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008