From Adam Nagourney at The New York Times:
Some things to keep in mind:
1 — There have been huge surges in voter registration reported in key states like Florida and Colorado, by all accounts reflecting the intense interest in Mr. Obama, his campaign’s aggressive effort to sign up new voters, particularly younger and black voters, and the declining fortunes of the Republican Party. That is the one big reason Mr. Obama’s senior advisers are feeling so bullish these days.
Still, it is one thing to register to vote; which can often be accomplished by filling out and signing a form provided to you on the street or at your doorstep. It’s quite another to get them to come out and vote. If Mr. Obama’s campaign succeeds at what it has promised, it is possible that Mr. McCain will lose in an Electoral College landslide, winning a bunch of Republican states by slim margins driven by get-out-the-vote operations. Still, first-time voters are inexperienced voters and, Mr. McCain’s advisers are no doubt hoping, less likely to turn out if, say, the weather is bad.
2 — As my colleague Jeff Zeleny reported on Sunday, the Obama campaign has invested millions of dollars and thousands of volunteers into developing highly sophisticated operations to identify supporters and get them to the polls. The campaign is building on — and presumably improving upon — the model that the Republican National Committee set up starting in 2000, under Karl Rove, Mr. Bush’s chief strategist, and Ken Mehlman, the former Republican National chairman.
Still, there is one important difference: These are to a considerable extent new operations. The Republican turnout operations got better with each cycle because party leaders figured out what worked and what did not.
That is not to say that Mr. Obama’s operation cannot do exactly what his aides say it will. It’s just that there really is no way to accurately judge which campaign has the better turnout operation until the votes are counted.
3 — Campaigns have rhythms, and inevitably swing back and forth for all kinds of reasons, including mistakes by candidates (think Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants) and the news media’s desire for a competitive race and tendency to find the “underdog is surging” story line irresistible. The pendulum theory is certainly one that Republicans are grabbing onto these days.
“I think over these last 30 days, there’s going to be a change in how the American people view this campaign,” said Jim Greer, the Republican chairman of Florida, a state where Mr. McCain finds himself in a particularly tough fight with Mr. Obama.
The question for Mr. McCain, of course, is whether there is enough time left for the pendulum to swing one more time, absent a big mistake by Mr. Obama, or ... .
4 — Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who ran for president in 2004, has argued that he would have beaten President Bush had Osama bin Laden not released a video message just days before Election Day. Whether the tape’s effect truly was decisive is debatable, but it is clear that Mr. bin Laden gave that election a very big jolt in the direction where Mr. Bush wanted to fight it, much the way the Wall Street crisis in September moved the 2008 election onto Democratic turf.
This race has been filled with surprises, so it would almost be a surprise if something else didn’t happen before the polls open. Mr. McCain clearly has an edge over Mr. Obama on national security; Democrats and Republicans agree that a serious domestic terrorism threat or attack could shuffle the deck of cards going into the final days.
5 — Race is, of course, the question that has hovered over the contest for two years. Are there a significant number of white voters who will not support Mr. Obama because he is black, no matter what they tell pollsters? Some Republicans said they have come to look at this as Mr. McCain’s last, best hope.
6 — Mr. McCain has clearly decided to go into the final weeks of the campaign hitting Mr. Obama about his passing acquaintance in Chicago with William Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground, while Republicans have been pushing Mr. McCain to hit Mr. Obama on his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Mr. Wolfson argued that this would not work because concerns about the economy were so strong, and many Republicans said that this late in the game, Mr. McCain was going to have an awfully tough time raising questions about Mr. Obama’s character.
This kind of attack — the overall idea, as Mr. McCain keeps suggesting, that people don’t really know (and thus can’t trust) Mr. Obama — sometimes creeps up on an opponent, gathering force and credibility. But even some Republicans think that might be tough with Mr. Obama.
“People think he’s basically a decent guy,” said Vin Weber, a former Republican member of Congress from Minnesota. But Mr. McCain’s advisers said he intended to keep hitting the Ayers question in the days, if not weeks, ahead, in the belief that this might be what it takes to get his campaign on track.
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