Obama Cracks 95%

Nate gives Obama a 95.1% chance of winning the election. Interesting finding:

[O]ur model is starting to make some decisions about just where it thinks Obama's momentum is manifesting itself. Specifically, it thinks that he's gained the most in states with lots of white, working class Clinton voters -- a result which might be intuited by the huge numbers that he's posting in Pennsylvania, or the fact that there's now another West Virginia poll out that shows the race nearly tied.

As a result, we're now coloring West Virginia white (toss-up) rather than pink (lean McCain). The model also thinks that Arkansas could be quite interesting the next time that it gets polled. The flip side is that Obama doesn't seem to have quite as much momentum in the Western half of the country, where Clinton generally performed poorly during the primaries.

If Obama wins West Virginia and Arkansas he's cracking 360 electoral votes. It'll be a massacre.

Thursday, October 16, 2008