538 Update

Nate has an encouraging take on the electoral map tonight. Well, encouraging if you want Obama to win and not McCain. Basically the map is shaping up with a number of options for Obama to break the 270 threshold if things hold steady (ie, if Colorado remains blue). NH, NV, OH, or FLA would all put Obama over the top. All of those states are polling within the margin of error (or close enough to be a solid toss up). Unlike Kerry Obama can win the White House with only one of PA, OH, and FLA, and right now PA seems to be solidly in Obama's pocket. FLA is an expensive state to swing, as is OH. Obama has a big money advantage and can certainly out-spend McCain in places like NH and NV. Because Obama doesn't need to win Florida (or OH) while McCain does every dollar he spends there means two more dollars McCain needs to spend. Dropping a load of cash into the state, as Obama has done recently, might only to be a way of ensuring that McCain can't campaign as effectively in some of the remaining swing states. This is all a guess, but if we find out over the next few weeks that McCain is spending money in a state like Indiana my guess is that'll be the silent death rattle of McCain's election.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008