Florida's Utility For Obama

Nate Silver:

In the pre-convention period, we had concluded that there were 243 electoral votes that were essentially fairly safe for Barack Obama in a close election. Those are the Kerry states, minus Michigan and New Hampshire, but plus Iowa and New Mexico. A total of 243 electoral votes leaves him 27 shy of the 270 he needs to win a majority. How many electoral votes is Florida worth? 27. The potential utility of Florida for Obama is that he could afford to lose Ohio and Michigan (as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virgina etc.) and still have a winning map by bringing home his "safe" states.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008