Contrarian View on McCain's Actions

1) Since McCain suspended his campaign a lot of attention has been focused on whether he would show up for the debate tonight. That attention will certainly lead to a massive increase in viewers, and with Obama insisting that it's more important than ever that the people get to hear from their potential next president, this debate has gone from something of a throwaway Friday night distraction to the central event of the campaign season.

2) The topic of the debate is foreign policy. This is McCain's strength. It is Obama's weakness.

3) With McCain slipping in the polls it was necessary to do something drastic to win people back over. McCain decided that the best way for him to do that was not just to embarrass Obama in a debate, but to make sure his domination became the news story until the next debate.

4) With the financial crisis and the Friday night schedule it was not likely that the debate was going to be much of a news story beyond the weekend (when people don't pay attention to the news anyway), so McCain needed to do something to ensure that the debate would have legs. He needed to make it an event.

5) So McCain suspended his campaign, putting doubt on whether he'd show up for the debate. He made the debate -- the debate in the only area where he has a clear advantage with the electorate -- an event.

6) McCain shows up at the last minute for the debate, effectively playing possum, blows out Obama (as he was always planning) and ensures that on Monday morning folks are still talking about it.

(This is a version of an argument Nate Silver spells out here)

Friday, September 26, 2008