From Daily Kos, below are the states that Bush won by less than 10 points in 2004, ordered by his margin of victory. The McCain numbers are Pollster.com composites from 9/15 through today:
Bush'04 McCain'08
IA 0.67 -13.8
NM 0.79 -5.9
OH 2.11 -4.8
NV 2.59 -2.7
CO 4.67 -3.7
FL 5.01 -5.2
MO 7.20 -2.8
VA 8.20 -6.3
AR 9.76 +10.5
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