We've all heard about the wisdom of crowds, but new research suggests that similar success can be had by offering a person multiple guesses to a single question and then averaging the guesses. Here are the results from the research paper:
The average of two guesses from one individual (within-person average) was more accurate (lower mean squared error) than either guess alone...
Moreover, the benefit of averaging was greater when the second guess was delayed by 3 weeks than when it was immediate...
Thus, one benefits from polling the “crowd” within, and the inner crowd grows more effective (independent) when more time elapses between guesses...
Simply put, you can gain about 1/10th as much from asking yourself the same question twice as you can from getting a second opinion from someone else, but if you wait 3 weeks, the benefit of reasking yourself the same question rises to 1/3 the value of a second opinion.
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