Marc Ambinder is one of the most conservative political reporters when it comes to electoral map projections, so when he gives Obama 239 electoral votes that's actually pretty significant.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI (42 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, NH, WI, PA, OH, NE 2 (73 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE 1, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (141 electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 184 electoral votes
Tossups: 135 electoral votes
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