From MSNBC:
Will the 2008 election be polling's "perfect storm"? Pollsters rarely say it in so many words, but when they compare notes these days, worry is the prevailing theme. Three big challenges loom that threaten to throw off survey estimates for the matchup between John McCain and Barack Obama.
George Stephanopoulos, the host of ABC News' Sunday morning show "This Week," summed up pollsters' concerns with a list of "three different undercounts" that he attributed to Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. This year's polls, he said, "may be undercounting the number of young people who are going to vote," they "may be undercounting the African-American turnout" and they "may not be capturing those white voters who just won't vote for Barack Obama because he's black."
Stephanopoulos delved indirectly into the methodological issues I want to explore in more depth in this space between now and the election. For more details, click here.
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